The rotation into cyclical and small cap stocks that we saw on the back of Biden’s debate performance and the Trump assassination attempt could pause on this latest news as the probability of a Republican sweep has most likely declined.
In a somewhat stunning turn of events, President Joe Biden announced Sunday that he is withdrawing from the 2024 Presidential race. Pressure from within the party and from donors over the past several weeks was likely the impetus for the decision, as it had become increasingly apparent that Biden’s age and acuity were liabilities for the campaign. Following his announcement to step down, President Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to take his spot at the top of the ticket.
Given the lack of recent precedent for this event, the next steps remain somewhat unclear. Reportedly, former President Barack Obama would prefer a contested convention to further the appearance of a representative foundation for Harris’ candidacy. However, with only about a month until the Democratic National Convention (August 19 – 22) and four months until Election Day, any delay in recognizing Harris as the candidate would likely hinder both fundraising and a re-invigoration of the delivery of the platform to align with Harris’ strengths.
In terms of the details of the platform, our view is that it will be largely consistent with that of President Biden, which we outlined in our recent Market Reaction to Trump Assassination Attempt note. In short, we believe a Harris presidency could bring higher corporate and personal taxes, restrictions on foreign trade, which could include higher/broader tariffs, and enhanced border security. It may also bring a renewed focus on issues such as climate change and abortion rights given Harris’ record.
In terms of the market reaction, U.S. equities were higher, with semiconductor stocks rebounding and the Nasdaq leading the way. Admittedly, the rotation into cyclical and small cap stocks on the back of a poor debate performance by Biden and the Trump assassination attempt could pause based on the Biden news, as the probability of a Republican sweep has most likely declined. While it is yet unclear how Harris would fare in the general election versus former President Trump, it is expected that her numbers will reflect at least a modest increase versus Biden; polling could improve even further depending on her selection of a running mate, particularly if she chooses a sitting swing-state governor. With that said, we believe this week’s U.S. market activity is likely to be more strongly correlated with earnings, as Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, Meta and Amazon will all report over the next five days.
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